Tuesday brought three simultaneous pressures that complicated clean positioning across most instruments. Houthi strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities in southern Saudi Arabia, injuring more than 70 people and halting operations at several energy sites, sent Brent crude to a session high of $99.46 before it settled back toward $98. Canada's retaliatory tariffs on $27.6 billion of US goods went live at midnight, applying rates of up to 50% on steel, dairy, appliances, and electronics - the sharpest escalation yet in a trade dispute where formal negotiations have now collapsed. Meanwhile, the Fed's September hike probability has drifted to approximately 60% with PPI due Thursday and the final CPI before the FOMC meeting landing Friday morning.
The level that mattered most today was WTI's $94.73 intraday high. Oil is up over 8% in September, and a sustained daily close above $95 opens the door toward $100 on WTI - a level that would meaningfully complicate the Fed's inflation calculus and likely push hike probability above 70%, pressuring gold and EUR/USD further while keeping USD/JPY anchored near 154 despite any dollar strength elsewhere.
Into tomorrow, the Hormuz corridor talks between Iran and Oman are the overnight wildcard: a confirmed passage agreement would reverse much of today's oil move and free gold to recover; a breakdown or fresh escalation gaps WTI higher at the London open. The PPI print Thursday morning sets the tone for Friday's CPI and everything that follows.
The full briefing covers specific levels and positioning logic across WTI, gold, silver, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, and USD/CHF, with a direct assessment of how last week's calls have tracked. Subscribe to Markets Mastered for the complete evening recap and tomorrow's morning briefing before the London open.